Malmö march towards another championship title, while Rangers still struggle to find their rhythm. In the first leg of this UEFA Europa League group stage, the teams seem evenly matched.
However, since the international break, the Swedish champions have struggled to find the net against AIK and GAIS away from home. They created fewer chances than their opponents. Against AIK, the shot count was 9 (2) to 15 (4), with an xG of 0.61 to 0.57, and against GAIS, it was 8 (2) to 10 (3), with an xG of 0.86 to 0.67. Upon returning to their home stadium, Eleda Stadion, Malmö's stats normalised: 13 (8) to 8 (2) in shots and 1.56 to 0.27 in xG, most importantly scoring 4 unanswered goals against Häcken. Fewer than one goal conceded per match in the domestic league is one reality, whereas 2.2 goals conceded in Champions League qualifying is quite another. The team has yet to keep a clean sheet, even against KI Klaksvik. Bets on the total over 2.5 and Both Teams to Score have come through in four of their six matches, with an average of over four goals per game.
Rangers are a club whose matches consistently show at least one team failing to score: this has been the case in seven of their nine games this season. However, it's important to consider that this is in Scotland, where there’s often a significant disparity in strength between clubs. The current opponent surpasses the value of the third-placed Scottish club, Hearts, by one and a half times, yet Rangers couldn’t defeat them.
Taking into account these contrasting performances, we lean towards believing the hosts will score and not lose, given that Malmö have failed to score in only two of their 18 home matches this year, and lost both. Rangers, in turn, failed to overcome Dynamo Kyiv in their Champions League qualifiers, a team with a squad value comparable to the Swedish side.
